A late night secret meeting in Kabul

It was 11:30pm and almost three hours into an intense discussion in a mini-palace in central Kabul on 7 December 2013. The participants, a small group of super-rich political elites, had gathered to hear classified briefings from two comrades-in-cause - Bismillah Mohammadi, Afghan defense minister, and Salahuddin Rabbani, chairman of the Afghan High Peace Council.

Mr. Mohammadi had just returned from Brussels where he’d attended a NATO ministerial gathering about Afghanistan and at the sidelines of which he’d held separate talks with U.S. and NATO officials.

The meeting was in a Kabul mini-palace

“I told Kerry [John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State] we want it signed and that it will be signed,” Mohammadi told the participants referring to a controversial Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) of Afghanistan and the U.S. awaiting final signature by President Hamid Karzai.

“They wanted to know how can we force Karzai to sign it or at least allow a minister to do it,” he added.

“You could have told him ‘it’s all your blind support that has made this stupid man so insane’,” one participants interrupted.

“They know it,” Mohammadi responded instantly.

In the meeting that cold winter night were Dr Abdullah, a long-time presidential hopeful and a former foreign minister, Amrullah Saleh, former director of the National Security Directorate, Haseen Fahim, a brother of the Vice-President Qasim Fahim, Yunus Qanooni, a former minister, Atta Mohammad Noor, governor of Balkh Province, Haji Almaas, a member of parliament and about four other associates and confidants.

A Pashtun plot

There was a strong consensus among the participants that President Karzai’s refusal to promptly sign the BSA had to be linked to his Pashtun ethnicity.  

“I told them because Karzai thinks that his Pashtuns will be losers, he does not want to sign it...he wants their homes be protected in Kandahar and Helmand,” Mohammadi said.

At one point in the meeting it was said that only Karzai, Hekmatyar and Taliban opposed the BSA - the vicious Pashtun triangle.

Although large plates filled with fresh fruits were laying alongside trays of dry fruits and sweets over the tables but participants were mostly sipping tea.

At stake, in the BSA’s complicated affair, was not only the group’s collective grip on political power but each participant’s business interests. For them, the U.S. was not only an ally but a guarantor of the post-Taliban regime in which they’ve thrived politically, financially and even morally.

“We should tell them that the North and the West are signing this agreement and Karzai must go to his South and die with his Pashtun brothers,” Atta Mohammad Noor was heard saying.

Others suggested that Karzai should be warned that if he delayed inking the BSA, the Northern leaders would seek direct arrangements with the Americans and all U.S. military bases would be offered in the northern provinces of the country.

“His Kandahar will be bombed from the North,” one participant said loudly.

The mood among the participants was more like a WW-II meeting of allied leaders pondering over attacks on German territories than a chitchat of Afghan politicians in the presence of a national defense minister.

The wrong peace envoy

“He was like a dead body,” said Salahuddin Rabbani, Karzai’s chief peace-maker for the Taliban.

He was talking about Mullah Bradar, a former second-in-command of the Taliban who has been held by Pakistani intelligence agency since 2010.

Years of Karzai’s advocacy for Bradar’s release had only given partial success in late November 2013 when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif agreed to permit a visit of Afghan peace  council with  Bradar at a secure location in Pakistan.

Karzai had sent Rabbani to see Mullah Bradar and now he was sharing the classified details of his top secret visit with his Jamiat leaders. Jamiat Islami is a political network of the former Northern Alliance which was headed by Salahuddin’s father, Burhanuddin Rabbani, also chairman of the peace council who was assassinated in 2012.

“He was kind of drugged and could not talk but I whispered in his filthy ear ‘Mullah sahib, enjoy!” and a laughter broke out.

My source, who witnessed the meeting until it ended at about 11:52pm on 7 December 2013, received a call and he had to leave.

Can this be a story, I asked myself as I walked out of the coffee shop where we meet in Kabul. No. Who will run it? But I had to write what I had heard. Perhaps it could give lead to others to run their stories on it.

Iran uses cash, influence to shape Afghan election blocs

Iranian diplomats-cum-spies are using every means to form manageable political teams to run for president in Afghanistan’s April 5 2014 election.

Sources who attended several secretive meetings, mostly held in the houses of political heavyweights in Kabul over the past two months, say Iranian sources offer cash – hundreds of thousands of dollars – to buy allegiance and partnerships for pro-Iran groups. The sources said the Iranian agents also use political tactics to form alliances, sway positioning among certain political elites and shape the overall pre-vote election landscape.

Tehran’s influence is particularly ripe in the camps of Shia political groups in Afghanistan. Shia-Hazara leaders like Mohammad Muhaqiq and Karim Khalili are said to be regularly receiving “counseling” from the Iranians.

Non-Shias like Gen. Dostum and Atta Mohammad Noor have also received similar “counseling” in their election jockeying.

Two sources who attended several meetings in the infamous Shirpor mansions in Kabul said Iranian cash has been used to buy allegiance from Pashtun and Tajik political parties and influential figures including government ministers and members of parliament.

Cash and promises of future political rewards such as state ministries and governorships have been used so generously that some parties have received multiple offers making it difficult for them to decide and thus delaying candidates’ official registration. The registration started on September 16 and will end on October 6. As of September 26, 10 days before the process is set to expire, only one independent candidate has registered.

Bargaining and pricing for partnership and allegiance are handled by “envoys” but directly and promptly reported to the “leaders” of different political blocs for approval, the sources said. Iran has a history of paying cash to Afghan politicians and even has thrown cash-bags into the office of President Karzai.

It is unclear who Tehran favors to succeed President Karzai next year but a friendly government in Kabul, which could safeguard and promote Iran’s interests in Afghanistan, is highly desired.

The Americans are said to be disassociated and absent in the Shirpor secretive meetings. Washington has pinned all hope on signing a highly-politicized bilateral security agreement with President Karzai before he leaves office next April - perhaps, in anticipation that the next Afghan president might be worse than Karzai.

The Yellow-Tolo Leak

In the latest of Obama-Karzai tit for tat, the Yellow Building in Kabul has leaked some secret Afghan government documents to its marionette media entity Moby Group. The documents allege that President Karzai set free hundreds of suspected insurgents from Afghan prisons over the past two years.

The joint Yellow-Tolo report – apparently Moby executives cleared draft scripts with experts/officials at the Yellow Building – tempts Tolo’s Afghan audience to believe that President Karzai has been backing Taliban suicide attackers. Among other Afghans, Taliban attackers also target Northern Alliance leaders.

Spreading this sort of carefully packaged leak will make the already toxic political environment in Kabul far nastier for President Karzai as he’d be under increased heat from the so-called “loyal opposition” and the civil society.

The leak has all the hallmarks of “psyops” which US & NATO uses extensively in Afghanistan to shape and reshape events, politics and decisions.  

It comes as the White House is losing the spin juggle vs. President Karzai and is making  contradictory statements. For instance, the White House has said it seriously considers the zero-option – complete withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan by the end of next year - while Martin Depmsy, chairman of joint chiefs of staffs of US military, has said he neither considers this option nor recommends it.

The Obama administration also blundered in Doha, Qatar last month as it allowed the Taliban to officiate an unprecedented propaganda exhibit under James Dobbins’s nose.

Good leaks, bad leaks

Sometimes through the NY Times style “a Western diplomat who did not want to be named” and haphazardly via local satellites, the US has leaked Afghan government and political elite's secretes on numerous occasions.

This kind of leaking if in line with US’s interests and thus sanctioned as legit.

Ironically an Obama administration that follows toughest policies to root out any leaking of US government secretes has been sanctioning leaks in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the world.

Over the next days the Yellow Building’s media monitoring unit will be busy compiling reactions to the Tolo leak. The Building’s staffers will also be meeting Afghan influentials and asking “so, what do you think about this?”

Alas, one wishes details of this drama will one day leak to Wikileaks!

   

After Palace meeting, Dostum declares victory

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is indeed facing domestic upheaval but his diplomats are by no means oblivious of safeguarding and promoting Turkish interests in Afghanistan.

On Sunday Basat Öztürk, Turkish Ambassador to Afghanistan, rushed to the Presidential Palace in Kabul to convey Ankara’s concerns about brewing political turmoil in Jozjan Province, north of Afghanistan, between Gen. Dostum and Governor Mohammad Alaam Sayee.  

Right to left: Karzai, Dostum Ozturk

President Hamid Karzai’s office put out a statement saying Karzai and Öztürk discussed “the activities of Turkish PRT [Provincial Reconstruction Team] in Jozjan Province”.

The next day, Karzai recalled his governor to Kabul.

A Karzai-appointed “facts-finding delegation” was on its ways to Jozjan on Sunday but it is unclear whether Governor Sayee has been fired before the facts are determined.

Dostum’s camp declared victory on Monday as Governor Sayee put out statements “the vice won over right” and “it’s a dark day”.

Before Karzai-Öztürk meeting, the Independent Directorate for Local Governance (IDLG) sided with Governor Sayee and warned Gen. Dostum, in a statement, that Kabul would not tolerate local “fiefdoms”. The IDLG statement came days after armed bodyguards of Gen. Dostum and Governor Sayee exchanged fire at the governor’s residence in Sherberghan city.

Dostum camp accuses Sayee of treason – to Junbish Party - and wants him out of this job – a job he got with Dostum support.

Mr. Sayee, however, says Dostum is propping up provincial/ethnic rebellion against Kabul and wanted him to defy the Karzai government.

This is not the first the burly Gen. Dostum barging into the houses of his ex-subordinates. On 2 February 2008, a drunk Dostum flanked by dozens of armed men burst into the house of Akbar Bai, a Turkmen leader, in Kabul city and reportedly ordered his men to rape Bai and his family members. In June 2011, Afghan authorities accused Dostum of intimidating Chinese oil workers in north Afghanistan.

While exact details of Karzai-Öztürk meeting are unknown, Dostum’s close ties with Ankara are hardly unknown.

Dostum’s family is mostly based in Turkey with his most favored son, Batur Dostum, completed his university studies in Pan-Turkism in Ankara University. Every time Dostum faces problems in Afghanistan, he flees to Turkey as he did in 1998 and 2008.

Ironically a President Karzai that fiercely opposes Taliban office logo in Qatar has allowed Gen. Dostum to run parts of Afghanistan with major Uzbek residents as his personal fiefs. For this sort of irony Afghans have a saying مربی داری مربا بخور   which literally means “thrive, when you have a supporter!”

Is Taliban office in Qatar a trap for Mullah Omar?

If it was 2005-2009, the entire Taliban political commission now managing an office in Doha would have been sent to Guantanamo jail.

Since the inception of the Taliban Islamic Emirate in 1996, the US has always refused to hold meaningful talks to it and, instead, has used every violent option to crash the Taliban.

For over 12 years, the US has used everything in its power - military, intelligence and political - to kill, capture and neutralize every Taliban enemy.  In fact, Mullah Omar, Taliban’s one-eyed Amirulmominien, has replaced OBL as America’s most wanted fugitive with $10 million bounty on his head.

Analysts say the US can’t maintain an indefinite war, particularly in a difficult economic environment, and has no viable option but to push for a graceful exit from Afghanistan through a political settlement with the Taliban.

This might be true but the same sophisticated intelligence apparatus that meticulously worked to locate OBL is simultaneously using every link to locate Mullah Omar. Omar’s death will have far wider dismantling consequences for the Taliban movement than OBL’s had on al-Qaeda.

However, it’s impressive to see Washington has been working hard to open a shop for the Taliban in Qatar and doing it so generously that has instigated President Karzai’s jealousy. Prior to the grand opening of the Taliban office in Doha, US and Taliban contacts even worked extensively on a Taliban statement - senior administration officials even discussed embargoed details of the Taliban statement hours before it was released.

Opening up direct communication with Taliban leaders is exactly what US intelligence agencies want in order to track Mullah Omar and other Taliban leadership members. In addition to spying on American citizens, US spies even surveillanced communications by G8 leaders during a summit of the group member states in 2009. It would be naive to say Taliban envoy a secure an impenetrable line of communication between Qatar and Pakistan.

In May 2007 ISAF forces killed Mullah Dadullah, a brutal Taliban commander, as he left his sanctuary in Quetta and entered Afghanistan. Interestingly coalition forces spotted Dadullah through his brother, Mansoor Dadullah, who had been released from jail in March 2007 and whose movements and communications were closely monitored. “By tracking his recently released brother, Mullah Mansoor, we were able to learn about a forthcoming trip [by Mullah Dadullah] to Afghanistan. We positioned collection and raid forces in advance,” writes Stanley McChrystal in his heavily Pentagon-edited memoir of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Less than 24 hours after the Taliban opened their office in Qatar, President Karzai angrily backed off from talking with them. Prior to the opening of the Taliban office, Karzai had travelled twice to Doha and had discussed every aspect of it. For years, Karzai was also asking for a Taliban address to lure them to talks. Why would Karzai then reject the hardwon opportunity?

I believe Karzai orchestrated a high-profile scenario in order to prompt Taliban leadership to open up emergency communication channels and in so doing enable US spy agencies to track leads to high value targets.

As the dilemma surrounding Taliban office in Qatar unfolds, one might be encouraged to say another highly secretive SEAL mission might be in the making.

Will the CIA manage to fool the ISI again, as it did on May 2 2011, and locate the world’s most wanted man in Karachi or elsewhere in Pakistan?

You want confidentiality? Don’t confide at Karzai!

The Indians were embarrassed when they heard Hamid Karzai said he had given Indian PM a wish-list of his country’s military hardware needs. That was supposed to be confidential, the Indians thought.

This is not the first time Afghan President has surprised his foreign interlocutors.

The White House was puzzled earlier this month when President Karzai said in public Washington had requested nine military bases in Afghanistan post 2014. Karzai is lying, Washington was forced to say in response.

Why is Karzai doing this? Statesmanship behooves politicians, particularly those in office, to respect confidentiality and a bit of secrecy.

Why would Karzai publicly and rather proudly confirm his office receives cash bags from CIA and even that he requested CIA station chief to continue the payments?

It would be unfair to blame his close aides, the ISI or the Taliban. Karzai, as he’s confirmed, is exhausted being President. The guy just needs a long rest and recuperation. Until then, don’t tell him secrets if you don’t want them officially announced the next day.

The humanitarian CIA

President Hamid Karzai insists the CIA cash bags were disbursed to treat the wounded, the ill and the needy Afghan officials who otherwise could not meet their life-threatening needs with their meager income.

Mr. Karzai is profoundly grateful for the CIA’s life-saving cash bags and urged CIA’s top spy in Afghanistan on Saturday not to cut off the lifeline. Karzai has refused to specify the amounts his office has received over the past 12 years but said invoices and receipts were submitted to CIA.

Unashamed of his plea to a CIA station chief for cash Mr. Karzai depicted a very humane, kind and caring humanitarian picture of an agency which has played a central role in propping up bloody wars in Afghanistan for the last three decades.

Mr. Karzia also fell short in describing why an intelligence agency was doling out cash to his office and what did it receive in return.  

No problem. We know what Mr. Karzai has given the CIA in Afghanistan – impunity. With a couple of millions of dollars a year, delivered only in bags per the recipient’s choice, the CIA has unrestricted freedom to do what and how it wants in Afghanistan.

Karzai has sounded obliviously joyful by saying he was saving “Afghan money” by spending the CIA cash. Well, Mr. President the CIA has outsmarted you again – as it did in 1980s when it gave you weapons to kill Afghans and destroy Afghanistan from Pakistan.

No leader of a country might be as much foolish to sell sovereignty this cheap as Mr. Karzai has it to CIA. To add insult to the wound, Mr. Karzai has painted a beloved face for the CIA – perhaps milder than the UN and ICRC.

How satisfied Langley should be with Karzai’s public relations campaign for the CIA is not hard to imagine. CIA is so shy that it does not claim any credit for its nonprofit humanitarian activities in Afghanistan but Mr. Karzai is surely a great beneficiary.

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Watch Hamid Karzai's CIA cash presser here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Epry63MmXzY