Is Taliban office in Qatar a trap for Mullah Omar?

If it was 2005-2009, the entire Taliban political commission now managing an office in Doha would have been sent to Guantanamo jail.

Since the inception of the Taliban Islamic Emirate in 1996, the US has always refused to hold meaningful talks to it and, instead, has used every violent option to crash the Taliban.

For over 12 years, the US has used everything in its power - military, intelligence and political - to kill, capture and neutralize every Taliban enemy.  In fact, Mullah Omar, Taliban’s one-eyed Amirulmominien, has replaced OBL as America’s most wanted fugitive with $10 million bounty on his head.

Analysts say the US can’t maintain an indefinite war, particularly in a difficult economic environment, and has no viable option but to push for a graceful exit from Afghanistan through a political settlement with the Taliban.

This might be true but the same sophisticated intelligence apparatus that meticulously worked to locate OBL is simultaneously using every link to locate Mullah Omar. Omar’s death will have far wider dismantling consequences for the Taliban movement than OBL’s had on al-Qaeda.

However, it’s impressive to see Washington has been working hard to open a shop for the Taliban in Qatar and doing it so generously that has instigated President Karzai’s jealousy. Prior to the grand opening of the Taliban office in Doha, US and Taliban contacts even worked extensively on a Taliban statement - senior administration officials even discussed embargoed details of the Taliban statement hours before it was released.

Opening up direct communication with Taliban leaders is exactly what US intelligence agencies want in order to track Mullah Omar and other Taliban leadership members. In addition to spying on American citizens, US spies even surveillanced communications by G8 leaders during a summit of the group member states in 2009. It would be naive to say Taliban envoy a secure an impenetrable line of communication between Qatar and Pakistan.

In May 2007 ISAF forces killed Mullah Dadullah, a brutal Taliban commander, as he left his sanctuary in Quetta and entered Afghanistan. Interestingly coalition forces spotted Dadullah through his brother, Mansoor Dadullah, who had been released from jail in March 2007 and whose movements and communications were closely monitored. “By tracking his recently released brother, Mullah Mansoor, we were able to learn about a forthcoming trip [by Mullah Dadullah] to Afghanistan. We positioned collection and raid forces in advance,” writes Stanley McChrystal in his heavily Pentagon-edited memoir of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Less than 24 hours after the Taliban opened their office in Qatar, President Karzai angrily backed off from talking with them. Prior to the opening of the Taliban office, Karzai had travelled twice to Doha and had discussed every aspect of it. For years, Karzai was also asking for a Taliban address to lure them to talks. Why would Karzai then reject the hardwon opportunity?

I believe Karzai orchestrated a high-profile scenario in order to prompt Taliban leadership to open up emergency communication channels and in so doing enable US spy agencies to track leads to high value targets.

As the dilemma surrounding Taliban office in Qatar unfolds, one might be encouraged to say another highly secretive SEAL mission might be in the making.

Will the CIA manage to fool the ISI again, as it did on May 2 2011, and locate the world’s most wanted man in Karachi or elsewhere in Pakistan?