Coup or Kill Awaits Dr. Abdullah’s Decision

Leading Afghan presidential candidate could be eliminated to steer way for Dr. Abdullah to assume presidency.

As politics fails to end Afghan election deadlock supporters of one candidate hatch out plots to either kill the rival candidate or snatch the power beyond electoral parameters.

Powerful warlords and several former Northern Alliance leaders have given blessings to a plan which aims to remove Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai, the leading presidential candidate, from the chaotic electoral race and pave the way for Dr. Abdullah Abdullah to declare his government.

Article 37 in Afghanistan election law stipulates that if a candidates passes away after ballots are cast and the deceased wins a seat, the victory would be passed on to the second top candidate.

“If Ghani dies Abdullah is president,” said a senior member of Dr. Abdullah’s camp who did not want to be named in this post.

Enraged by the announcement of preliminary election results, some pro-Abdullah influential commanders said they could deploy an assassination squad to Ashraf Ghani’s house in the west of Kabul city. The proposal, however, was immediately scrapped by the “leadership” because it was deemed too risky, an insider to Dr. Abdullah’s camp said.

Both Afghan presidential candidates are guarded by Afghan police and intelligence operatives. Additionally, each candidate has been provided with a convoy of armored vehicles. The candidates’ movements are meticulously coordinated between MoI and NDS and mobile body scanners are installed at entrance to every event attended by the candidates.

An Afghan cabinet minister said the assassination of Hashmat Karzai, a prominent supporter of Ashraf Ghani in Kandahar province, was “sort of a warning call” for Mr. Ghani that he too could be targeted. Although blamed the Taliban has rejected involvement in Hashmat Karzai’s killing and no other group has claimed the responsibility.

The minister, talking to this author off the record, said the Northern Alliance leaders did have the means and possibilities to deploy “suicide attackers” but could not give further details. “They could facilitate a Taliban attacker or deploy their own,” the source said.

Alternatively, explosives could be improvised at a stage, roadside or other locations at Ashraf Ghani proximity to cause his death.

Ghani’s elimination could put an end to Afghanistan’s months-long election crisis but could also instigate unforeseeable instability. It is unclear, however, what, if anything, Ghani’s supporters could do in reaction to his assassination.

The alternative plan at Dr. Abdullah’s desk is taking over the presidency through a coup. This plan has received extensive discussions among Abdullah’s closest circles but is deemed flawed by some because of strong international objections particularly that of Washington’s.

Prospects for the unavoidable political transition in Afghanistan seems so bleak that even President Barack Obama and his top diplomat, John Kerry, appears to have failed in sorting out the election mess. Disappointed in their national leaders as well their state institutions, the Afghans hoped for a strong American hand to end the looming political chaos in Afghanistan resulting from the June 14 acrimonious presidential election runoff.   

The race between Abdullah and Ghani, most importantly for both men, is zero-sum and the US-led diplomacy to bring both parties under a unified government is doomed to ultimate failure. As the essence of any objective and independent electoral process would dictate, there can’t be two equal winners and Afghanistan can’t have two presidents. Either Washington would have to use some guts to enforce electoral as well as political discipline in Afghanistan or allow the Abdullah camp to win by shedding some blood.

What Kerry Really Brokered in Kabul

In lengthy and wide ranging talks in the most secure rooms at the US Embassy in Kabul on Friday and Saturday, John Kerry and Afghan presidential candidates agreed upon more serious issues than a total vote audit. However, the real deal which was struck in secret has leaked now.

Before his plane touched down in Kabul on Thursday night, Kerry was briefed by James Cunningham over a secure line about the “real acrimony” which had to be sorted out. Ambassador Cunningham had held extensive discussions with Dr. Abdullah and his closest allies and found all of them in a state of “paranoia” about their future.

Actually the dissident candidate, Dr. Abdullah, was not entirely concerned about the vote share he was given by the IEC but was fearful of his future in an Ashraf Ghani Government.

Kerry spent more time with Dr. Abdullah than he did with Ashraf Ghani. Talks sprawled from election to Abduallah’s past and future and even his family. At one point the ophthalmologist-turned-politician almost broke down in tears telling Kerry how he felt robbed from the leadership by Hamid Karzai twice.

Abdullah knew he was not going to be the next president but he could not afford to lose it all too. It was this zero-sum understanding of the election game that forced Abdullah to fiercely reject election results and threaten to declare a breakaway government. It was a warning a signal to Washington Dr. Abdullah wanted to send about his political ordeal.

Ballots audit had already been proposed and was underway but what kept the US Secretary of State for 45+ hours in Kabul was ironing out the details of a power sharing agreement upon which a post-Karzai government would be set up.

“The North, West and Central provinces including Kabul are with us and my people want me to declare a government for them,” Abdullah was quoted as saying to John Kerry at one point.

Abdullah then handed over a “proposal” to Kerry which was more about the “should be and should not be” of an Ashraf Ghani Government than the technicalities of ballot inspections.

“Basically Abdullah wanted to make a loser’s government or Dr. Abdullah’s Government for Ashraf Ghani’s presidency,” said one source who attended some of the meetings with Kerry.

In meetings, Ghani’s camp was told it could not form a government unless Dr. Abdullah stamped on it.

Fearing his victory would be fraudulent and considered illegitimate, Dr. Ghani nodded to a power sharing agreement – the so-called National Unity government.

Under the agreement, which was instantly leaked by Abdullah’s camp, Ashraf Ghani will appoint a Chief Executive Officer for his government who will be actually assigned by Dr. Abdullah. The CEO will undertake the functions of a Prime Minister but the exact terms of reference will be decided later. Furthermore, Mr. Ghani will give 30 percent share in all senior government positions including the cabinet, governorships and ambassadorships to Dr. Abdullah.

These will be interim arrangements which will be enshrined in the constitution by the end of 2016 – when all U.S. forces quit Afghanistan. The constitutional changes will be made through a Loya Jirga, according to the agreement.

As the UN-lead inspectors examine all ballots from around the country, the two camps will make their lists for the future government. Lists will be exchanged after the Eid and by late August or early September when Dr. Ghani’s inauguration takes place, the shape and structures of the new government will have already been decided.

Recommendations For Immediate Management Of Afghanistan’s Political, Electoral Crisis

The state and political system in Afghanistan lingers over a make or break point. Should Dr. Abdullah Abdullah declare a “parallel government”, something his camp has promised, it would break Afghanistan into fiefs and facilitate the Taliban to take over some parts of the country.

Instead of backing Afghan constitutional institutions in their bid to manage and conclude the acrimonious electoral process, Washington has adopted an unhelpful position which has further complicated the political environment.  

American diplomats have been pushing for a “National Unity” government between the two rival camps – a very dangerous, if not entirely unfeasible, formula. Any foreign-imposed power sharing arrangement will result in an extremely weak, polarized and fragile government in Afghanistan.  

As John Kerry prepares to land in Kabul and press both Afghan candidates for a coalition government, here are some immediate policy recommendations for President Hamid Karzai to capture and reverse the unfolding crisis;

·         Wean off moderate and reconcilable figures from Dr. Abdullah’s camp. Individuals like Zalmai Rasoul, Ustad Sayyaf and Gul Agha Sherzai can take away significant psychological as well as political stamina from Abdullah’s base. These individuals can distance themselves from Dr. Abdullah by saying publically that they would not support any declaration of an unconstitutional government,

·         Embolden Engineer Mohammad Khan, Dr. Abdullah’s senior vice presidential nominees, to reject declaration of any unconstitutional power takeover. Such an arrangement could be achieved with the leverage of Abdulhadi Arghandiwal, Planning Minister, and other Hezbi Islami leaders,

·         Organize an emergency assembly of Jihadi leaders and other prominent personalities to declare a strong statement against any unilateral and unconstitutional claim over the Presidency,

·         Stop government officials, particularly chairman of the High Peace Council and Governor of Balkh Province, from issuing inflammatory and provocative statements on Social Media,

·         Security sector leaders – interior and defense ministers – should assure Afghan citizens that security forces are neutral and will protect the constitution, avert any resort to coup d’état and ensure security all over the country.  

Even after a successful management of the current crisis, the next Afghan government will face tremendous challenges in order to effective meet its core constitutional authorities. 

Comping up: The politics of pre-election pollings in Afghanistan

In the midst of an economic downturn in the US, one would ask why Washington has thrown over $3 millions to a media entity and an NGO to produce pre-election opinion surveys in Afghanistan.

Conversations with three credible sources in Kabul have revealed to this writer that the US Government has doled out more than $3 million to Moby Group and Glevum Associates to produce several opinion surveys and even an exit poll on April 5th elections in Afghanistan.

Tune in to KblPolitics to know more soon...

A Karzai-aide-turned-ANHAM-executive Turns a Millionaire

Jawed Ludin earned over US$11,000 a month when he worked first as President Hamid Karzai’s spokesman and then as his chief of staff in 2004-2007. Through several donors-funded projects including “Bridging the Information Gap” which was administered by the United Nations Development Fund (UNDP) and another project which was bankrolled by The Asia Foundation (TAF), Ludin was paid thousands of dollars every month on top of his other remunerations from the Afghan Government.

Under a UNDP contract, Ludin was paid $6,000 a month for over three years while the USAID-financed TAF paid him $5,000. In return for the generous payments, Mr. Ludin facilitated donors’ access to Afghanistan most sensitive political office - the Presidential Palace.

As the Palace’s top spokesman and Chef de Cabinet, Mr. Ludin also had unrestricted latitude in disbursing large amounts of donor money on projects which were designed to build a strong and effective communication infrastructure for the Afghan President.

The two projects disbursed over $20 million in five years, according to UNDP and USAID internal documents.

With that money, Ludin hired over 40 employees for the President’s media office, authorized procurements of office equipment and managed other discretionary funds such as financing friendly newspapers and radio/TV stations.

Fund disbursements were not subject to Afghan Government oversight and Mr. Ludin’s office only had to place approval signature over periodic donors’ financial reporting which were produced by UNDP.

On top of his bulky salaries from foreign donors, Jawed Ludin was also paid by President Karzai and from the Afghan Government sources. Air tickets to Canada where Ludin’s wife was living and costs of his and his immediate family’s treatment in India were generously covered through the Palace’s slush funds which came from the CIA and Iranian sources.

In 2007 after Afghan officials reported suspicious activities by British forces in Helmand Province, a British-passport-holder Ludin was increasingly accused of being too sympathetic to Brits. Karzai decided to send Ludin away first to Norway and then to Canada as his ambassador.

While in Canada, Ludin divorced his first wife and married a British citizen.

In 2011 Karzai recalled Ludin to Kabul and appointed him as deputy foreign minister but in practice he acted more like the foreign minister given Zalmai Rasoul’s chronic incompetence.

Knowing it was his last position under a Karzai government, this time Ludin fiercely build up his business and financial backbone in Kabul.

What Mr. Ludin did from 2011 to 2013 in the Afghan Government remains unknown to the public but only six months since he quit the Afghan Government and got hired by ANHAM, a UAE-based multinational firm, his bank accounts hold millions of dollars. He has spent over $1 million buying two luxury apartments - one in Dubai another in London.

ANHAM runs multibillion dollars contracts in Afghanistan and was previously accused of bribing senior Afghan officials.

The Daily Beast recently published a story about Sayed Tayeb Jawad, a former Karzai ambassador to the US and now a lobbyist in Washington, who, like Ludin, was paid by donors while working for Hamid Karzai in Kabul in 2002-2004.

Mr. Jawad is as much well off financially as Mr. Ludin is and he also has business association with ANHAM. Both men have contacts and supporters in the U.S. Government, Congress and business circles.

Mr. Jawad is a U.S. citizen and like every other citizen has taken the oath to uphold and serve U.S.’s interests first of every other country’s. Ludin is also a subject of the British Queen.

Why President Karzai posted these and other hyphenated Afghans as Afghan envoys abroad and/or placed them in senior positions in his government is often justified under the rubric of “lack of capacity” in Afghanistan.

Over a decade with these sort of professionals Afghanistan has become the world’s most corrupt state. The professionals, however, are thriving businessmen.

Coming-up: Once paid by multiple donors ex Karzai aide makes millions

A top Karzai aide - definitely not Sayed Tayeb Jawad - was paid over $11,000 a month by two international organizations and was also given unrestricted latitude to spend tens of millions of donors’ funding to build capacity in a highly sensitive government center in Kabul. The official, now working for a private company, has millions of dollars in his personal account.

Watch out for this expose' on KblPolitics soon!

A Federation of Afghanistan and a Congressman’s Dream

“How dare Karzai deny a U.S. Congressman entry to his fucked country,” burst Dana Rohrabacher, a Republican lawmaker in the U.S. Congress, over the telephone from Dubai to an aide in Washington, DC.

It was 20 April 2012 and the Californian representative was on his way, along with several other fellow lawmakers, to Kabul when Hillary Clinton, then Secretary of State, called him to say President Karzai had declared him persona non grata.

Dana wanted his aides and friends in Washington’s powerful lobby system to riddle the media with this sentence: Karzai has blocked entry to Afghanistan of a U.S. Congressman who wants to cripple Karzai’s massive corruption enterprise.

Over the next two days Mr. Rohrabacher had a mic on at his disposal in over 15 high-profile interviews in each of which he lampooned President Karzai worse than the world’s worst criminal.

Participants of a meeting in Berlin, Jan 2012

Over a year later Rohrabacher’s insults are gone but his plan for Afghanistan - because of which Karzai refused to let him into Kabul - is gaining momentum.

The Kurdistan model

“They’re just like Kurdish Peshmergas,” Dana told a fellow Republican lawmaker after his inconclusive trip in April 2012. By “they” the Congressman meant the Afghan Northern Alliance.

Dana’s interests in Afghanistan blossomed in 1980s when the landlocked country was invaded by the Red Army and when he travelled to the region and made friends among the anti-Soviet Afghan Mujahideen factions.

In late 2001 the U.S. Government - Pentagon and CIA in particular - ousted the Taliban and brought Dana’s Afghan friends, now the Northern Alliance, into power in Afghanistan.

Over the subsequent decade as the Northern Alliance warlords garnered enormous wealth, institutional power and political legitimacy, Dana was invited to numerous meetings in Afghanistan, UAE, Germany and elsewhere.

It was during these meetings that a consensus came into existence - to break up parts of Afghanistan into independent federal states.

For centuries Afghanistan has been manipulated by Pashtuns and a central and presidential political system enables them to maintain the status quo, Dana was told.

During a meeting in January 2012 in Berlin, Congressman Rohrabacher distributed a white-paper in a meeting which included Mohammad Mohaqiq, a Hazara warlord, Gen. Dostum, an Uzbek warlord, Amrullah Saleh, a translator of the late Ahmad Shah Masoud who at 30 was appointed to run Afghanistan’s intelligence agency, and Ahmad Zia Masoud, a brother of commander Masoud.

The paper summarily illustrated how the Iraqi Kurdistan became an autonomous governing sphere.

It impressed the Afghan participants.

Dana and a U.S. Senator also explained to the Afghans that under the Truman Doctrine, the U.S. government supported minorities in other countries where their political rights were compromised.  

Afghanistani states

Dr Abdullah and Mohammad Muhaqiq, backed by several Northern Alliance leaders, have teamed up and are running for the top political office in Afghanistan. The two men are running on a ticket which has Dana’s stamp - a federally-administered Afghanistan.

They want to swap Afghanistan’s traditional system of central governing with the one which will devolve greater autonomy to the country’s specific regions. Under the plan, Afghanistan will be divided into a handful of federal zones per ethnic, religious and linguistic lines and each will have its executive, legislative and judicial branches.

“We envision an Afghanistani Hazaristan” a confidant and advisor of Mohaqiq told me in Kabul asking for anonymity given the sensitive nature of the issue. He said the Afghanistani Hazaristan will encompass central and south-central parts of the country which, in his words, were mostly populated by ethnic Hazaras.

In the north, there will be an “Afghanistani Khorasan” where the official language will be Farsi and the populace will be mixed ethnically i.e. Tajiks, Pashtuns and Hazaras.

“In the south and east, we believe an Afghanistani Pashtunistan would be very attractive to the local people,” the advisor said adding the official language there would be Pashto.

While Kabul and its immediate surroundings will be kept as the capital of the new federation, the west of the country will be offered a referendum to either join the Pashunistan, the Khorasan or the Hazaristan.

Abdullah-Mohaqiq’s electoral platform appears to have strong backing from their lawmaker friend in Washington, DC - Mr. Rohrabacher.

The Obama Administration has publicly vowed that it would not seek a favorite in Afghanistan’s upcoming presidential election. Politically this might be correct and Washington may not back any of the 11 men running for President Karzai’s position.

In terms of U.S. foreign policy, however, support for the minorities to achieve their political rights is an imperative.