Coup or Kill Awaits Dr. Abdullah’s Decision

Leading Afghan presidential candidate could be eliminated to steer way for Dr. Abdullah to assume presidency.

As politics fails to end Afghan election deadlock supporters of one candidate hatch out plots to either kill the rival candidate or snatch the power beyond electoral parameters.

Powerful warlords and several former Northern Alliance leaders have given blessings to a plan which aims to remove Ashraf Ghani Ahmedzai, the leading presidential candidate, from the chaotic electoral race and pave the way for Dr. Abdullah Abdullah to declare his government.

Article 37 in Afghanistan election law stipulates that if a candidates passes away after ballots are cast and the deceased wins a seat, the victory would be passed on to the second top candidate.

“If Ghani dies Abdullah is president,” said a senior member of Dr. Abdullah’s camp who did not want to be named in this post.

Enraged by the announcement of preliminary election results, some pro-Abdullah influential commanders said they could deploy an assassination squad to Ashraf Ghani’s house in the west of Kabul city. The proposal, however, was immediately scrapped by the “leadership” because it was deemed too risky, an insider to Dr. Abdullah’s camp said.

Both Afghan presidential candidates are guarded by Afghan police and intelligence operatives. Additionally, each candidate has been provided with a convoy of armored vehicles. The candidates’ movements are meticulously coordinated between MoI and NDS and mobile body scanners are installed at entrance to every event attended by the candidates.

An Afghan cabinet minister said the assassination of Hashmat Karzai, a prominent supporter of Ashraf Ghani in Kandahar province, was “sort of a warning call” for Mr. Ghani that he too could be targeted. Although blamed the Taliban has rejected involvement in Hashmat Karzai’s killing and no other group has claimed the responsibility.

The minister, talking to this author off the record, said the Northern Alliance leaders did have the means and possibilities to deploy “suicide attackers” but could not give further details. “They could facilitate a Taliban attacker or deploy their own,” the source said.

Alternatively, explosives could be improvised at a stage, roadside or other locations at Ashraf Ghani proximity to cause his death.

Ghani’s elimination could put an end to Afghanistan’s months-long election crisis but could also instigate unforeseeable instability. It is unclear, however, what, if anything, Ghani’s supporters could do in reaction to his assassination.

The alternative plan at Dr. Abdullah’s desk is taking over the presidency through a coup. This plan has received extensive discussions among Abdullah’s closest circles but is deemed flawed by some because of strong international objections particularly that of Washington’s.

Prospects for the unavoidable political transition in Afghanistan seems so bleak that even President Barack Obama and his top diplomat, John Kerry, appears to have failed in sorting out the election mess. Disappointed in their national leaders as well their state institutions, the Afghans hoped for a strong American hand to end the looming political chaos in Afghanistan resulting from the June 14 acrimonious presidential election runoff.   

The race between Abdullah and Ghani, most importantly for both men, is zero-sum and the US-led diplomacy to bring both parties under a unified government is doomed to ultimate failure. As the essence of any objective and independent electoral process would dictate, there can’t be two equal winners and Afghanistan can’t have two presidents. Either Washington would have to use some guts to enforce electoral as well as political discipline in Afghanistan or allow the Abdullah camp to win by shedding some blood.