What Kerry Really Brokered in Kabul

In lengthy and wide ranging talks in the most secure rooms at the US Embassy in Kabul on Friday and Saturday, John Kerry and Afghan presidential candidates agreed upon more serious issues than a total vote audit. However, the real deal which was struck in secret has leaked now.

Before his plane touched down in Kabul on Thursday night, Kerry was briefed by James Cunningham over a secure line about the “real acrimony” which had to be sorted out. Ambassador Cunningham had held extensive discussions with Dr. Abdullah and his closest allies and found all of them in a state of “paranoia” about their future.

Actually the dissident candidate, Dr. Abdullah, was not entirely concerned about the vote share he was given by the IEC but was fearful of his future in an Ashraf Ghani Government.

Kerry spent more time with Dr. Abdullah than he did with Ashraf Ghani. Talks sprawled from election to Abduallah’s past and future and even his family. At one point the ophthalmologist-turned-politician almost broke down in tears telling Kerry how he felt robbed from the leadership by Hamid Karzai twice.

Abdullah knew he was not going to be the next president but he could not afford to lose it all too. It was this zero-sum understanding of the election game that forced Abdullah to fiercely reject election results and threaten to declare a breakaway government. It was a warning a signal to Washington Dr. Abdullah wanted to send about his political ordeal.

Ballots audit had already been proposed and was underway but what kept the US Secretary of State for 45+ hours in Kabul was ironing out the details of a power sharing agreement upon which a post-Karzai government would be set up.

“The North, West and Central provinces including Kabul are with us and my people want me to declare a government for them,” Abdullah was quoted as saying to John Kerry at one point.

Abdullah then handed over a “proposal” to Kerry which was more about the “should be and should not be” of an Ashraf Ghani Government than the technicalities of ballot inspections.

“Basically Abdullah wanted to make a loser’s government or Dr. Abdullah’s Government for Ashraf Ghani’s presidency,” said one source who attended some of the meetings with Kerry.

In meetings, Ghani’s camp was told it could not form a government unless Dr. Abdullah stamped on it.

Fearing his victory would be fraudulent and considered illegitimate, Dr. Ghani nodded to a power sharing agreement – the so-called National Unity government.

Under the agreement, which was instantly leaked by Abdullah’s camp, Ashraf Ghani will appoint a Chief Executive Officer for his government who will be actually assigned by Dr. Abdullah. The CEO will undertake the functions of a Prime Minister but the exact terms of reference will be decided later. Furthermore, Mr. Ghani will give 30 percent share in all senior government positions including the cabinet, governorships and ambassadorships to Dr. Abdullah.

These will be interim arrangements which will be enshrined in the constitution by the end of 2016 – when all U.S. forces quit Afghanistan. The constitutional changes will be made through a Loya Jirga, according to the agreement.

As the UN-lead inspectors examine all ballots from around the country, the two camps will make their lists for the future government. Lists will be exchanged after the Eid and by late August or early September when Dr. Ghani’s inauguration takes place, the shape and structures of the new government will have already been decided.